Free Energy Chronicles

Free energy calculations are annoyingly difficult. Computing averages with Metropolis is relatively easy,
but the free energy is hard to get. The usual method is thermodynamic integration over a path from a state of known free energy to the desired state. (Maybe it's the ensemble averages that are anomalously easy, making other quantities seem difficult by comparison) In addition, some other aspects about free energy calculations are bothering me as well.

The typical example for explaining Monte Carlo integration is to compute the area of an irregularly shaped field or pond by throwing rocks at it. But then computing the area (volume, free energy, whatever) is actually quite difficult in practice. Of course in this example, one has to compare the rocks falling in desired area to those falling in an enclosing area that can be computed analytically, so it's still computing the difference between two states.

Another issue that bothers my intuition is that if I were to wander around in a field I would have some idea how big the field is based on my wanderings. In other words, why can't we get the area from properties of the random walk. This could simply be pushing the analogy too far. A person wandering is not undergoing a truly random walk. They would likely walk in single direction until hitting an edge and then change direction. So imagine riding an out-of-control Segway around a field - would you still get a sense of the size of the field.

Additionally, a person is able to see the edges. So imagine being in a corn field (I am in central Illinois, after all - others can imagine a forest, with very soft trees) on an out-of-control Segway. Would it still be possible to get an idea of how big the field is based on the path taken and how often you bump into the edge?

So I'd like to look into some of the properties of random walks - how much information can be extracted. Are there theoretical limits? Can we change the random walk or come up with different estimators that would let us compute the area?

In order to investigate concrete but simple systems, I'm thinking of a series of systems to make the problem increasingly realistic for physical systems. The simplest and easiest to think about the area of an irregular region. More realistic, the area of the region is much less that the area of the enclosing square, and the region is long and snaky. Then go to higher dimensions, and eventually to a system of hard spheres. To be more generally applicable, the next step would be a general potential (think of a hilly field and we want to know the volume of soil is in the field)